For Team Anna, it meant seeking legitimacy and validation of their anti-corruption campaign. For Congress, it was a case of extending its electoral supremacy in a constituency that had slipped out of its embrace years ago. The BJP desperately yearned for a victory to sniff a whiff of anti-Congress sentiments in the country. On top of that, it was billed as a trial of strength between the Jats and non-Jats.

With Anna Hazare’s civil society movement turning into a scorching political onslaught against the Congress, the Hisar Lok Sabha by-poll on 13 October in Haryana had all the trappings of a bruising electoral contest.

In a tough triangular contest, Haryana Janhit Congress (HJC)-BJP candidate Kuldeep Singh Bishnoi, a non-Jat, won the election, defeating Ajay Chautala of the Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) by a slender margin of 6,323 votes. Congress suffered an ignominious rout with the party candidate Jai Prakash, a two-time MP, coming out a poor third and even forfeiting his security deposit.

Political analysts observe that the importance of the poll verdict lies not only in the Congress drubbing but also in the perceptual change among the voters about the country’s oldest party that is battling a string of scams and high inflation rate. The argument for a perceptional disaster for the Congress stems from the fact that the party, along with Hisar, also lost three assembly by-elections in Maharashtra, Bihar and Andhra Pradesh.

“In politics, perception is important and the perception is that Congress is a sinking ship as of today,” noted political commentator Yogendra Sharma said. “Though the perception is important, it is far from definite. We will have to wait for the result of Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand assembly elections for a final verdict,” he told a news channel.

BJP spokesperson Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi emphatically asserts that the Hisar result signals the onset of pronounced anti-Congress sentiments across the country.

“In Hisar, corruption was the main issue. The Congress has become unpopular in a very short time because of its inept handling of the issue of corruption. I have a feeling that the UPA coalition will disintegrate. In the past too, leaders like Charan Singh and Mohan Dharia left the Congress. The arrogance of Congress will generate several Charan Singhs and Mohan Dharias in days to come,” he told Yuva.

Experts point out that the real test for anti-Congress sentiments will be the coming assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh and Punjab. While it would be premature to say that the results of the by-elections are a pointer to strong anti-Congress sentiments, but the signs are ominous. The dissension within the UPA allies has come out in the open with the National NCP and the DMK blaming the Congress leadership for the present predicament of the ruling alliance. Maratha strongman and NCP Chief Sharad Pawar remarked that a series of scams had weakened the UPA’s authority and resulted in other forces, such as the judiciary, asserting itself.

Senior DMK leader TR Baalu is also peeved with the government’s improper handling of the Hazare episode, the CAG (Comptroller and Auditor General) report on the 2G-spectrum scam and inflation. “I feel the government could have handled these issues in a better way. It has not only given us a bad press but also changed the public perception about UPA's handling of corruption. The opposition is scoring points by propagating a negative propaganda and we are unable to stop that,” he remarked at a press conference.

Significantly, it was the first election in which Team Anna had actively campaigned against the Congress, and was being widely seen as a referendum on Hazare’s campaign for a strong Lokpal Bill. Arvind Kejriwal, a native of Hisar and astute strategist of the Anna camp, had exhorted voters to banish the Congress for its refusal to accept Anna’s version of Lokpal. Anna Hazare himself had stayed away from Hisar, only issuing a video appeal to voters to defeat the Congress.

Emboldened by the victory, Anna threatened to replicate the Hisar campaign in five states, where assembly elections are slated for next year. “The Congress should stop blaming ‘Team Anna’ and instead take strong steps to create stricter laws against corruption in the winter session,” he wrote on his multi-lingual blog.

But not all political leaders and experts are convinced about the role of Anna factor in the Hisar poll outcome. “The Anna factor was not a tipping point in Hisar; it played only a marginal role. The issue of corruption existed even before Anna Hazare’s campaign – the 2G scam, CWG scam, to name a few,” says BJP leader Naqvi.

Another BJP spokesperson Shahnawaz Husain says the verdict is against corruption and poor governance. “Team Anna did not appeal for anyone’s victory. The credit for the Congress’ debacle goes to every anti-corruption voice, but the victory is of the BJP-HJC alliance,” he asserts.

Like the BJP-HJC combine, the Congress also trashed suggestions that Team Anna played any role in its defeat. “It was not a Congress stronghold,” party spokesperson Renuka Chowdhury said, discounting claims that the Hisar debacle would affect the party prospects in the coming assembly polls.

However, political analyst Pushpesh Pant says the defeat shows utter bankruptcy and mobilisation on the part of the Congress leadership and a pathetic understanding of ground realities. “The Congress is a ruling party in Haryana and boasts one of the most dynamic chief ministers. Yet the party lost because it erred in choosing a political lightweight. The party fielded a candidate knowing full well that it would lead to a split in Jat votes,” he told Yuva.

Dr Pant points out that the Anna factor did make a difference but only in the victory margin. “My gut feeling is that the Congress debacle is going to be repeated in the coming assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand.”   

Senior CPM leader Nilotpal Basu concurs. “The loss of Congress was not due to the Anna factor, which has been blown out of proportion. The issue of corruption, coupled with strong local factors, resulted in Bishnoi’s victory. There is a general disgust with the Congress’ misrule, but it is not a victory for the BJP.”

An exuberant Bishnoi attributed his victory to the sympathy wave in favour of his late father and former Chief Minister Bhajan Lal, whose death last June, necessitated the by-poll. He also gave credit to the new alliance with the BJP which benefited him in the urban areas. He asserted that the diktat by the Anna Hazare team to vote against the Congress came late and had no impact since the people had already made up their minds.

A major significance of the Hisar by-poll is the emergence of Kuldeep Bishnoi as a towering and acceptable non-Jat leader in the state. His victory is a pointer to the consolidation of non-Jat votes. After 16 years of continuous Jat rule in Haryana – beginning from Bansi Lal to Om Prakash Chautala to Bhupinder Singh Hooda, the electorate decided to support Bishnoi as an acceptable face of non-Jats.

The benefit for the BJP stems from the fact that the saffron party – till now a marginal player in Haryana – will get a foothold to look for better results in the next general elections. “The victory is a foundation stone for the formation of HJC-BJP government in the state,” says Bishnoi.

The Congress cannot brush away the defeat because its candidate was hand-picked by Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda. But more troubling for the party is the perception that it is a party on decline. Also, the anti-corruption movement is likely to become more sharply political. The Congress would be betraying political innocence if it thinks that Anna’s anti-corruption campaign is a fashionable catchphrase for a frustrated middle class that would taper off gradually.

As for Team Anna, Hisar may have given them a taste of success, but they may find the terrain tougher for the coming assembly elections in Punjab and Uttar Pradesh.

WHAT THEY SAID
“One by-election in a particular part of the country cannot be considered a referendum on the performance of my government or the Congress party.”
– Prime Minister Manmohan  Singh 

“The UPA lost its popularity within one year of its rule due to unprecedented inflation and lost its credibility within two years due to large-scale corruption.”
– BJP leader Sushma Swaraj

“We have no pleasure in losing an election... we will examine... we must ensure that the party is strengthened… In elections, victory or defeat is a common thing.”
– Congress Spokesperson Renuka Chowdhury

“It’s a referendum on the Jan Lokpal bill. The Congress should take a lesson and now pass the Jan Lokpal bill.”
– Team Anna spokesperson Arvind Kejriwal

HISAR BY-POLL PARTICULARS